U.S. single-family housing authorizations in December fell 0.95 percent from November and declined 3.76 percent year-over-year, according to a December Housing Health Report by BuildFax.
It’s the second consecutive month of decline in the market.
Between 2014 and 2017, housing authorizations had an average of 8 percent annual growth, and 2018 was the first time since 2013 that the economy experienced some leveling off, with an overall annual growth of housing authorizations at just 3 percent, the report states.
If the decline in authorizations persists, BuildFax suggests the chances of a possible recession between 2019 and early 2020 will double.
“The potential for an economic downturn has been highly discussed over the past few months as more signals of a recession come into alignment,” BuildFax CEO Holly Tachovsky said in a statement. “While this is only the second consecutive month of declining indicators, this shift is in stark contrast to the white-hot housing market that the U.S. has experienced since 2013.”