National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun forecasted at NAR 2025 Realtors Legislative Meetings that new-home sales will rise by 10% in 2025 and by 5% in 2026, while the median home price will climb by 3% in 2025 and by 4% in 2026.
Yun also forecasted that mortgage rates will average 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and 6.1% in 2026.
“The housing market remains very difficult at the moment, as you know,” Yun said at the meeting. “Part of the delay in recovery is because the Federal Reserve has changed its outlook and appears to be on pause for a longer period.”
In 2024, the Federal Reserve previously forecast that gross domestic product would increase 2.1% and inflation would rise by 2.4%, but it downgraded its forecast in March 2025, now forecasting the GDP to rise by 1.7% and inflation would rise to 2.7%.
Read NAR’s forecast here.
