Sales of existing homes are predicted to rise by about 14% in 2026, according to National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. During his 2026 housing outlook report at the Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum at NAR NXT, The Realtor Experience in Houston, Yun said the predicted rebound will be made possible by easing mortgage rates, growing job gains and greater market stability.
“Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales,” said Yun. “Home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining.”
Specifically, home prices are projected to increase by 4% in 2026 due to steady demand and continuous supply shortages. At the same time, mortgage rates are expected to ease, averaging around 6% next year.
Yun pointed out that in addition to Federal Reserve decisions, broader economic factors are contributing to slightly more affordable borrowing rates.
“As we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better,” Yun said. “It’s not going to be a big decline, but it will be a modest decline that will improve affordability.”
Regions where new construction is most robust will see the greatest affordability improvements for buyers. Increased housing supply in high-construction areas like Houston will make it possible for first-time buyers to achieve homeownership.
Yet, in the current climate, the share of first-time buyers has hit an all-time low of 21% while the median age of first-time buyers is up to 40. Optimistically, Yun said as home construction increases, it will spur on job creation. Combined with lowering mortgage rates, affordability for first-time buyers should improve.
Read the full report here.
