Single-family home builders’ confidence rose just one point to 38 in November, remaining negative according to the National Associations of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Economic uncertainty around tariffs and rising construction costs, paired with the government shutdown, kept builder confidence relatively flat month-over-month. An HMI score of anything over 50 indicates that more builders see conditions as good, while anything under 50 indicates more builders view current conditions as poor.
“While lower mortgage rates are a positive development for affordability conditions, many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation,” said NAHB Chairman and home builder and developer, Buddy Hughes.
Because demand continues to dip, a post-COVID record high 41% of builders have reported cutting prices in November, according to the latest HMI survey. Average price reduction hovered around 6%, the same rate as October.
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz expects the difficult sales environment to improve in 2026, although minimally. “After a decline for single-family housing starts in 2025, NAHB is forecasting a slight gain in 2026 as builders continue to report future sales conditions in marginally positive territory,” he says.
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